Ethereum has performed “pretty” well during 2019 (disregarding the month of July) after being able to reverse the previous bearish trend that was present during the entire period of 2018. During the course of the first few months of 2019, Ethereum had managed to rise above both the 100 day EMA and 200 day EMA and continued to rise to reach a high around $350 before rolling over.
However, as July started to trade, Etheruem slipped from its high to drop by a total of around 30%. Despite this, Ethereum is still up by 117% from 2019 low placed in February 2019. Ethereum remains ranked in the 2nd position with a total market cap value of around $24 billion.
In light of this price increase form the February 2019 low, I believe that Etheruem still has the potential to reach $500 by 2020 (or at some point in early 2020). This prediction will certainly require Ethereum to reverse against BTC.
ETHUSD - LONG TERM
What Has Been Going On?
Taking a look at the daily chart above, we can see that Etereum had met resistance at the long term bearish .618 Fibonacci Retracement level (drawn in red) priced at $348 during June 2019. This long term bearish Fibonacci Retracement is measured from the July 2018 high to the February 2019 low. We can see that resistance at this FIb Retracement level was too strong for the bulls which had caused the market to reverse and fall.
Ethereum managed to find support recently at the short term .786 Fib Retracement (drawn in green) priced at $199 where a rebound was experienced that allowed Ethereum to reach $230. Ethereum is now trading at resistance provided by the 200 day EMA.
Where Will We See Resistance Toward $500?
Looking ahead, if the bulls start to push the market higher, we can expect immediate strong resistance above at $300. This is then followed up with more resistance at $321 and $340 before the bulls have to contest the very strong resistance at $348 provided by the aforementioned bearish .618 Fib Retracement.
If the bulls can continue and power above $350, they will be creating fresh 2019 highs. The next level of resistance above $350 is located at $367 which is followed with more resistance at $400. Above $400, we can expect more strong resistance at $420 which is provided by the bearish .786 Fibonacci Retracement level. This is then followed with more resistance at $463 (.886 Fib Retracement level). If the bulls can continue to clear this level of resistance, they will be clear to make an attempt at the target level of $500.
Etheruem is suffering HEAVILY against Bitcoin with no bottom in sight. For this prediction to come true, Ethereum MUST reverse against Bitcoin. If Ethereum does not reverse against Bitcoin (or at least somewhat stabilize) it will have no chance of reaching $500, even if Bitcoin continues to rally toward $20K. However, if Ethereum can stop plummeting against Bitcoin this prediction is an extremely possible outcome.
To reach the $500 target level, Ethereum will need to increase by a total of 122% from the current price. Considering that Etheruem has managed to increase by 117% from the 2019 low already (even if we take into account the recent 30% price drop) gives me the confidence to believe that Ethereum can most certainly hit $500 by 2020.
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