𝗪𝗵𝗶𝗰𝗵 𝗰𝗼𝗶𝗻𝘀 𝘀𝗵𝗼𝘂𝗹𝗱 𝗜 𝘁𝗮𝗸𝗲 𝗮 𝗹𝗼𝗼𝗸 𝗮𝘁 𝗻𝗲𝘅𝘁? 𝗟𝗲𝘁 𝗺𝗲 𝗸𝗻𝗼𝘄 𝗶𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁𝘀 𝗯𝗲𝗹𝗼𝘄!
𝗚𝗟𝗢𝗕𝗔𝗟 𝗠𝗔𝗥𝗞𝗘𝗧 𝗖𝗔𝗣:
It's official, we are now at a new high of $390bn total market cap, higher than it has ever been since the 2017-2018 bull run. Still a way to go before reaching those $835bn. That being said, bearing in mind that in 2017 the market cap went from $400bn to $835bn in just under two months puts things into perspective. Getting past that $400bn mark could be the catalyst for an explosive rally which bears would have difficulty in stopping. Time will tell however, as what happened in 2018 will probably have the effect of traders setting more conservative profit-taking levels. This would create big sell walls for major coins like BTC and ETH at key levels which will need to be overcome.
Still following my prediction of testing $12k before Wednesday evening and the fact that it hit it a couple of hours ago already is a sign that bulls are keen on following ETH's price action and break past its key resistance. So far, bears have pushed back at $12k so the best scenario would be for BTC to find support at $11.95k or $11.88k to stay in its current strong uptrend. Aiming its sights on $12.1k after that and finding support above $12k is key as that would propel not only Bitcoin but the entire market forward. This week will be critical in seeing where we are heading next: will the bears be strong enough to keep price below $12k, or is the bullish momentum now ready to break through and head towards $13.5k?
A rejection could mean we would have the kind of sideways range action we saw in August which could last until the end of the month. At which point the multi-month upward trendline would force Bitcoin to do one of two things: break out up to new yearly highs, or form a reversal pattern. It's possible, but not probable. Keep in mind Bitcoin halving effects have tended to lag behind a few months before prices taking off and since the last halving took place in June, things are looking pretty golden for BTC right now.
Beautiful price action from the bulls, shooting past the $440-$450 resistance range I had been looking at and looking to find support at $475 before tackling $500. What happens to Bitcoin with its $12k resistance is likely to affect what ETH does next. The RSI is currently still in overbought territory so ETH taking time to stabilize at $475 or retracing to $450 would be a healthy move to gather enough steam to tackle the $500 mark. And if $500 is broken, things could potentially accelerate very fast - in 2017 when that level broke, ETH nearly tripled in value in a single month.
Do I expect it to do so again within the span of 1 month? Probably not, simply because back then everyone was FOMOing into crypto and people are likely to be more cautious. But this is a key level and will be a huge bullish signal for Bitcoin since ETH tends to lead the way historically in terms of trend direction for BTC.
ADA is a tough one... I did increase my position in ADA after the 30+% retracement that happened in August but this was me buying the dip without the certainty that it will break its current downtrend. So far, so good as it has rallied along with the rest of the market since last Friday however it still has to break the downtrend it is in. It seems rather likely that it will break its current downtrend, however that is not a certainty nor is it the question we should be asking ourselves. The question is will it be able to outperform its rivals or will it continue to underperform?
Looking at the ADA/ETH pair we can see that ADA only needs to drop a further 30% in value against Ethereum before reaching an all-time low. And with its network growth slowing down (70% drop in August compared to July for new addresses joining the network), things are not looking so great in the short-term for Cardano. The Shelley upgrade pushed prices up, but the fundamentals seem to be lagging behind at the moment. Although I believe in Cardano's vision, right now in my opinion there are better moves to be made. I will be looking at that ADA/ETH pair closely and only trade if I see a potential trend reversal happening.
XTZ has been performing very well over the past couple of months, and technicals are looking strong - 30% retracement after its yearly high: check. Breaking out of its downtrend: check. Still in its multi-month uptrend: check. Not yet parabolic: check. The ONLY thing I am not happy about is its performance against ETH and BTC; for the XTZ/BTC pair we are approaching multi-month lows with strong resistance so this could mean a good entry point. Yet looking at XTZ/ETH, it is still on a strong downtrend.
𝗜 𝗵𝗼𝗽𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝘄𝗮𝘀 𝗵𝗲𝗹𝗽𝗳𝘂𝗹, 𝗽𝗹𝗲𝗮𝘀𝗲 𝗹𝗲𝘁 𝗺𝗲 𝗸𝗻𝗼𝘄 𝗶𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁𝘀 𝗶𝗳 𝘆𝗼𝘂 𝘄𝗼𝘂𝗹𝗱 𝗹𝗶𝗸𝗲 𝘁𝗼 𝗵𝗲𝗮𝗿 𝗮𝗯𝗼𝘂𝘁 𝗼𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗿 𝗰𝗼𝗶𝗻𝘀/𝗽𝗿𝗼𝗷𝗲𝗰𝘁𝘀 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝘄𝗵𝗲𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗿 𝘆𝗼𝘂 𝘄𝗼𝘂𝗹𝗱 𝗹𝗶𝗸𝗲 𝗺𝗲 𝘁𝗼 𝗱𝗲𝗹𝘃𝗲 𝗱𝗲𝗲𝗽𝗲𝗿 (𝗼𝗿 𝘀𝗶𝗺𝗽𝗹𝗶𝗳𝘆) 𝗰𝗲𝗿𝘁𝗮𝗶𝗻 𝗮𝘀𝗽𝗲𝗰𝘁𝘀 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗼𝘀𝗲 𝗺𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗮𝗻𝗮𝗹𝘆𝘀𝗲𝘀. 𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝘆𝗼𝘂𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗼𝘂𝗴𝗵𝘁𝘀 𝗼𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗰𝘂𝗿𝗿𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗺𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁? 𝗪𝗵𝗲𝗿𝗲 𝗱𝗼 𝘆𝗼𝘂 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗸 𝘄𝗲 𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝗵𝗲𝗮𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗻𝗲𝘅𝘁?