This post has been inspired by the recent post by @Astroboy13 on contrarian investing. Even though @Astroboy13 didn’t use that exact term in the post but it did sort of touch on the subject, as he explained:
“….red is back everywhere in our crypto portfolio. That may seem crazy, but I love this situation, and I’m going to explain why.”
Blood In The Market, Why I Love It
The Serial Commenter Strikes Again
Now most of the Publish0x Crypto community will have heard of the famous Warren Buffet crypto quote.
From 2018 when Becky Quick CNBC tweeted about his remark. Warren was responding to a question from Becky about an earlier statement by Charlie Munger, where Charlie was talking about Bitcoin:
"I think it's rat poison."
And of course some general investment advice from the Oracle of Omaha.
Now this advice is particularly useful for crypto investors, given the Bitcoin driven 4 year cycle. Within this 4 year cycle, there is a predictable 12-24 month window of opportunity, where there is literally "blood in the streets" or "when others are fearful".
From January 2019 to early 2020 we threw everything we could spare into crypto. Loose change from the washing machines at work, tax refunds, covid relief packages, everything that was over and above our day to day living expenses. The hunch paid off big time in 2021, when we were able to buy the beach shack, we had been renting for a couple of years.
At the time we were probably unaware of Warren Buffets quote. But later it became our single most important investment mantra, once the significance of what had just happened had sunk in. Given most of our timing was just plain dumb luck.
Picking the bottom as January 2019, an uneducated guess from the little trading we had done. After nearly 6 months of no trades pinging, some of the alts started to randomly jump 200-300%, taking out our buy orders that had been sitting idle. Some one was buying, obviously some one with more money than us, enough to cause a 200-300% jump.
The Legend Of Baron Nathan Mayer Rothschild
Legend has it that Baron Rothschild told a client
The part played by Nathan Mayer Rothschild (1777-1836) and his brothers in helping the British Government to finance military operations against Napoleon is legendary. Nathan's London House, N M Rothschild, dealt in bullion and foreign exchange, and had remarkable successes, earning him the contract from the British Government to supply Wellington's troops with gold coin in 1814 and 1815, the period leading up to the Battle of Waterloo.
Nathan Mayer Rothschild had early knowledge of the outcome of the Battle of Waterloo, as his couriers were able to deliver from the battlefield, the vital information of the English victory back to London before the British Cabinet knew.
Legend has it he was able to use this knowledge to speculate on the London Stock Exchange and make a fortune by using his advantage against the other British stock holders.
The British Government had only just heard of the English defeat at Quatre Bras.
Consols (bank annuities) were already weak from the news of the Quatre Bras defeat.
Instead of investing in Consoles (buy the dip), Nathan Rothschild sold Consoles, Consoles dropped more and Nathan kept selling.
"Rothschild knows, Waterloo is lost"
Nathan keeps on selling Consoles and Consoles keep plummeting.
Just before it was too late, Nathan buys up large for pennies on the pound.
Moments afterwards the great news breaks that English defeated Napoleon at Waterloo, sending Consols to the moon.
Disclaimer: Of course this is all fiction. As much as I hate disclaimers, thought I better as one really doesn't want to piss of the Rothschilds.
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