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BTC got rejected at one of the most important resistance we have ever faced, this rejection might not be as bad as it looks, it could help the bulls regain some strenght to finally break the line, i do not exclude the possibility of a deeper correction even to $ 5000 but i just find it very difficult in the situation we find ourself.
After a recovery of almost 150% it was needed a correction to support the newly crated bull-trend.
For the support I'll be watching around $ 7800 - $ 8120, if this level is broken we might see a fast $7000 instead, if in these weeks we are able to recover and keep over the $ 9800 level this would be a very positive signal for BTC.
It is not possible to ignore the MACD turning bearish in the daily, yet a positive signal is coming from the support given by the 200MA which, if broken, might lead to a deep level, even if i think given our scenario is more likely to hold.
Today was the halving day and there has been quite a bit of movement that result in a 1.8% loss at the time of writing, as expected BTC tend to pull back at the halving as it did in the past 2.
BTC after a plunge back to $ 8200 lvl is consolidating between $ 8400 & $ 8800.
This consolidation might last less than we expect as it is in my opinion that in few hours during the chinese market session (3a.m central eu time) we are gonna see big movement, of course it might keep this level for more.
I am having a hard time trying to figure out what's next in my opinion, so here I'll present you my 3 ideas:
So, this is what I picture will be the next BTC moves during may,
- 1= fall to $7800,
- 2=recover to $9000,
- 3=consolidation between $9000 - $8800,
- 4=back on $9900 - $10200,
- 5=down to $7000,
- 6=back on bull-ish track.
As it might sound difficult this is an actual pattern taken from AMZN 2006, some of you will know that BTC is following the AMZN stock price graph since 2016, to this pattern follows a huge price spike that will break in few weeks the ATH, if this pattern will be verified well we gotta be ready for a nice trip to the moon.
Of course this pattern is verified only if the price will break the support around $8200 first going to 1 and only after the resistance at $8800-$8900.
To me sounds very likely due to the fact that $ hyperinflation will take place soon, with the halved mining speed BTC have it's inflation halved thus increasing the effect, one more postive aspect is the apreciation of cryptocurrencies around the globe which are welcomed by both common people and investors.
I do not exclude an immediate move up back on $9000 level or, even better, an upward movement to $ 10500 this week that would be the alternative i picture if my pattern is not get verified, and it will confirm the uptrend, nontheless I find it quite hard due to the fact that we should have a bit more consolidation between $8000-$9800 in my opinion.
My third and last option is a gradual movement downward to around $6000 level before a long term bull-trend which would take us in around an year or a bit more to $ 100000 per BTC. ( as the stock-to-flow chart indicates $ 100000/BTC around 2021-22)
This could be even more likely if we have an imediate recover towards $9000, this might be even more likely than my first choice because we need to remember that we are currently getting out a global crysis which could affect heavily the need of people for money, with the disastrous reports that came out last month about national economies around the world we only have to hope that governments will be able to face the crysis and help the most affected sectors going back on track. Also keep in mind that many sectors such as tourism will not recover untill an year minimum due to the virus thus limiting the effect of any economic intervention. With that i want to say that for few month we might see a contraction in price not only of BTC but of every category of assets.
That said, I hope I've helped, I'm open to new ideas as usual and some feedbacks are very welcomed.
(last but not least not financial advice :) , I just here to exchange ideas)