At the moment of writing BTC has broken the $ 9300 after a half day of consolidation above $8800, as I've said in the last post the bulls did manage to have the upper-hand thanks to the double bottom with the price heading towards $ 9400.
Now what we want to see is that BTC hold this zone as support without falling below $9000, if that happens so it may be signal for the price looking at $10500.
I am picturing two major scenarios:
- BTC has a fast correction that will bring us back or even lower $ 8800,
- period of consolidation that will hold us before an other bull-run
the first scenario is not very likely as all the most important technical indicators are turning bullish on most of the timeframes, so although is yet possible that in few hours or days we may be retesting $9000, nontheless is not very likely that we are abut to break lower $9000 due to the positive signals coming from the charts.
the second scenario is the most likely, though I have no clue about the duration of the consolidation(which could be hours or days).
A good support is given by $9000-9100 zone while our resistance would be around $9400-9500.
If we do break below $9000 and consolidate below that region I'd be looking again for the $7800 level, on the other hand if we manage to keep above $9000 we could think about a move which would bring us back on the $9800-10000 level to fill the CME future gap left after the post-halving plunge and, if happens, we might be going to break again the long term resistance heading for $ 10500.
I've already mentioned the long term resistance which is holding BTC down, right now we are still facing it even after a little fake-out.
This is a very important level which would tells us the mid term BTC trend.
It might be possible that we get rejected if we don't close in the weekly above the line.
A positive signal comes from the 200MA which held us very effectively for the moment skyrocketing BTC back up more than $1000 from the bottom of the plunge.
To me long term we are going to see a very bullish BTC(might be in few weeks as months) but right now is not possible to understand if the bullrun is starting or not, as I said to me to decide is needed a weekly close above the trend line to finally state the beginning of the uptrend or vice versa.
As I've mentioned previously if we do get rejected I personally will look at $7800 as a good support and if we would be about to go even lower the $5000 - $6000 is next.
If instead we do manage to hold around the so-yearned $ 10500 level I would be looking at $ 11000, $ 13000 as the main two resistance to get over.
Once the trend line will be broken I'd expect an upward movement to $ 11000 with a little correction back on the trendline before actually starting the rally.
Soon I'll be sharing with ya'll what I think would be a good diversified crypto-portfolio to get ready for this upcoming bull-market (just in case you don't want to bet all on BTC)
By the way thanks as usual in advance to all the readers again reminding you that I'm no expert (although I will & wish I'll be) and that nothing here said is a financial advice.