Hope you're all doing good fellas and that most of you did profit from the recent move, we are right now seeing a very active and bullish BTC, as I've said we did find some resistance between $9900 - $9800 after breaking fast the 9500 level, we also already had a correction of the price way down to 9200 but on the 4H chart we had a close up at 9500 which was our resistance, now has become a good support for the price that at the time of writing is heading towards 9700.
So, my pattern was wrong but nontheless I did manage to notice it around the 13th so I'm glad, anyway in my opinion we are looking pretty bullish, we are finding ourself in a key level so we may a bit of struggle getting over.
If we will manage to break above $10000- $10100 my first price target is $10500 and after that around $11k, we need to keep the $9500 otherwise we might see even a further retracement.
My concern is that we need a higher high to conferm the trend upward, if we get rejected again we might go back to the $ 8200 level but, if we are able to reach $10500 that would be a very positive signal.
If we do not get a higher high in these two weeks the chart may look like playing a double top or a head & shoulders which would increase the chance of a further and lower retracement.
This is the BTC daily chart, we are currently being held down by the support of the peak we had back in january and it may seem in the lower timeframes that we are getting rejected going toward $9200 again.
Of course the overall situation looks very bullish but since the black tuesday we didn't have a volume increase enough to support the newly formed uptrend, all the major index (DJX, S&P, etc..) are heading down and will probably for the next months, here we have the million dollar question: has bitcoin decoupled from the stock market? will it follow gold?
we may be arrived at the point where people has to decide what kind of financial asset is bitcoin to them, an edge against inflation / the new gold or a stock.
Though a good signal comes from the RSI which is not overbought anymore after the dump so we may have room for a new bullrun which will bring us to 10500.
we are having a bit of struggle with the MACD that looks a bit indecisive but anyway I don't trust much this indicator.
In conslusion I think we might see a $9900 soon or even higher which would be a nice thing, yet always let's take in consideration the overall world situation and be careful.