Second World Great Depression - The Return of the year 1929?
Second World Great Depression - The Return of the year 1929?

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When I was 12 years old, I think it was my first time I studied about World Economic Depression in my history classes.

That depression happened on Black Thursday in October 1929. I haven’t lived those times at least in this life. Only our grandfathers or their fathers have known about it. That crisis spread across many western countries. What I remember hearing from my grandfather was that having shoes back then was a luxury and they could barely afford 1 pair if they  were lucky. 

The depression was a real economic disaster for many citizens. Middle class was almost wiped out of surface, a lot of people lost jobs and homes. President Roosevelt solved the crisis by New Deal Plan in 1933 and by Manufacturing Warfare production. Yes, believe it or not, during WW2 the economic crisis wasn’t already issue for US. Although we may recall the Depression periods only for western countries, there was also a terrible economic crisis going on in Soviet Union but their causes were different.

The Depression was a direct cause of the rise of Nazism in Germany and underlying cause of WW2. There aren’t absolutely any doubts about it.

During the Depression – great infrastructure has been built such as Hover Damm which is located in Nevada, very close to Sin city - Las Vegas.  I went there, it’s a really amazing piece of architecture and Vegas rocks.

Black Thursday occurred exactly on October 24th, 1929 when Wall Street plunged 11%. Today it just came to my mind, could something happen the same day of this year? October 24th, 2019? BTW it’s Thursday too. I really don’t know. 

We may think that depression times maybe something distant, but not really; there's already been declared that in Greece, Brazil, Venezuela or Zimbabwe, people have lived worse times than in 1930’s. 

How was First Depression in 1929?

In 4 years from the beginning of the Depression GDP shrank 43%, the unemployment rate got back to normal levels when war started in US after the year 1941, when a lot of US soldiers were sent to battle fields in Asia and Western Europe. GDP recovered to similar levels before the crisis until 1940’s. 

Year GDP Unemployment Inflation 1929 N/A 3.20% 0.60% 1930 -8.50% 8.70% -6.4% 1931 -6.40% 15.90% -9.3% 1932 -12.90% 23.60% -10.3% 1933 -1.20% 24.90% 0.8% 1934 10.80% 21.70% 1.5% 2018 3.90% 2.90% 1.90%

I’m talking here only about US numbers, I can totally dare to say that the crisis could have even worse effects in some European countries more than in US.

When you see the macro stats they look similar in 2018 to the year 1929. I don’t have stats of 2019 because the year hasn’t finished yet.

 

One of the first person who started to talk openly many years openly about it is Robert Kiyosaki, you can listen about it in this video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YuePAOTL9mY . It’s really worthy to listen to this video because it’s perfectly well explained.

What I have observed in the previous crisis – in 2001 and in 2008 – the stock market peaked 1 or 2 years before the big market plunge. The last big stock plunge that we remember started to happen in September 2008. There are similarities before the plunge with today:

  • Decrease of interest rates.
  • Massive quantitative easings

 

As I was doing research about it in previous posts the fundamental causes are very complex, it’s much more complicated today than 11 years ago. I wrote about it in a post:

 

  • The crisis is being driven from China, where there is a lot of manufacturing surpluss in factories and the prices of Chinese goods are stumbling plus there are initial problems with loans of Chinese businesses. China has a big impact on world GDP.
  • We are running on counterfeit money.
  • There are macroeconomic signs of coming crisis.
  • Debt rates out of control in countries with strong economies.
  • Massive Quantitative easing – Banks are printing money in excess.
  • Pension Crisis
  • Student’s loan crisis
  • Trade wars
  • Potential global conflicts.
  • Major Stock Markets peaked out recently.
  • FED running out of bullets for the new crisis, and yes they are doing a lot of wrong things.
  • Environmental crisis
  • Most of people don’t count on liquid cash, they have money to be spent only in credit cards.
  • The world GDP is slowing down.
  • Governments are spending less money than before.
  • There are sign of the possibility of housing market crash.

 

According to Kiyosaki, the guilties one is the US dollar. According to this author, a lot of unbalance have been originated in 1971 when Gold Standard has been abandoned and a lot of Central Banks have their reserves in USD or other major hard currencies.

Today’s hard currencies are:

US dollar, Euro, British Pound, Swiss Franc and Japanese Yen. Some people include Chinese Yuan to this category too. And there are strong voices who consider Bitcoin another hard currency too.

When we hear about 1929 depression, and when I mention about this topic at home, it sounds spooky and hard to believe.

How probable is a World Economic Depression?

That is my personal forecast – 60% go for Depression, 39.9% Recession, 0.1% nothing of this gloom will happen. Maybe it could be biased but I was researching a lot and talked with many people about it, and I believe in what I state. 

Is the solution to create more debt?

Probably it solved the problems in 1933 when Roosevelt signed a New Deal and there was a sharp recovery in 1934. But a lot of governments have been doing the same formula since then during a lot of crisis. Some countries just weren’t able to handle it as history shows: Mexico (1982), Argentina (2000), Greece (2012). And other countries, that remain very shaky in terms of debt: Japan, Italy, US, Brazil, France, Spain, Canada, Greece.

You may ask: How about Greece? Did the situation improve regarding to their debt? The debt is measured against GDP in percentage. The affordable % would be no more than 80%.

You may ask: How about Greece? Did the situation improve regarding to their debt?

It’s over 200%.

Greece is a very small country, there are much bigger real ticking bombs which are located in:

  • Japan where it is around 260%
  • Italy – it’s somewhere around 130% - 140%
  • US – reaching almost 110%. 
  • UK going almost to 100%
  • France – 108%
  • Brazil – 110%
  • Canada – 97%
  • Belgium – 115%

 

The highest debt in numbers goes for US – over 22 trillion USD, total world debt is estimated around 60 trillion dollars.

Maybe in Mexico or China, the debt ratios are somewhere between 60-70%. You may say, it isn’t a big deal but it starts to feel tough when Mexican government starts to cut budget on medicine for cancer or HIV patients. If a patient with HIV doesn’t take his medicine – what do you think that happens?

What are the solutions?

I am not an official economist, I just like reading and researching about this topic but I will give you some of my tips:

1) BUY, STOCK, HODLE CRYPTO

Guess what? I have very little of it but I hodle. Maybe my 40,000 PAR aren’t a big deal because it’s a very low amount in USD today. It’s like the money that you are going to spend in the restaurant for 2-3 guys. But have you thought that there might be an event which would massively trigger the value of PAR?

How about if 1 PAR equals one day 1 USD? Would it be even possible? I can ask the same question about Hydro? 

I don’t know when, how and why but I am strongly convinced that it would become much more expensive than today.

Today some of us got spooked after the last crypto slump in the last 3 – 5 months depending on crypto. 

Ok, what happened, Bitcoin went down from 13.9 to 7.9K, now it’s around 8.2 K. Where is it forecasted to be? Some people think 100 K, others 250 K, me – 290 K, and there are some who go for 1 milllion USD or even more. That’s speculation of course. 

Ethereum – reached around 350 USD, went to its low of 160 USD, now it’s around 180 USD. 

What I can see today? Great price for both top currencies and other Alts too.

The main advantage of crypto is the descentralization. The real cryptos aren’t manipulated by governments.  They are issued by crypto corporations. 

2) EARN FREE CRYPTO

Is that even possible?

Yes it is. Join Uptrennd: https://www.uptrennd.com/signup/NDQwMg

 

As you know our great platform, 1UP tokens can be earned by:

  • Creating posts
  • Making comments
  • Referrals
  • Watching twitch
  • Cool giveaway contests.
  • Leaderboard awards.

 

By each level up the upvote worths 0.1 point more.

 

So in Level 1 – 100 upvotes = 100 points, Level 11 – 100 upvotes = 200 points, Level 20 = 290 points, etc.

 

Do you have to pay for it? No, it’s just your effort and quality post that you are willing to create. 

 

You can earn cryptos also on Publish0x, Minds, Steemit and other cryptosocial media.

Uptrennd, Publish0x and Minds are my favorite ones. These cryptosocial media are the best ones IMO, and they worked out really nice for me.

 

3) TRADE CRYPTO

 

Take some T/A courses, or read great posts from our Trading community. It’s hard to believe it but you will find lots of great trading tips from Paul, Mr BullishSail Cryptotrader, Paul Scrembo, Jules Horack and others. They also have their trading courses for sale, please research on it, it’s totally worth to invest in.

 

4) CLOUD MINING 

 

I know that some people don’t like it. Well what I can tell you is that I invested over 100 ADA on 10 year mining contract, and I got over 50% of my initial investment in less than 5 months. Maybe a 1 ADA is very little today, but how about if it reaches 1 USD or more in the next years? I find it quite possible. And there are cloud mining programs such as Electroneum, PI and others that you can mine even on your mobile.

 

5) CRYPTO REFERRALS

 

You can do them on Uptrennd, Brave, Presearch, and for other crypto projects. What is the worst thing that can happen? No referrals. In the best case – earn some or a lot of cryptos.

 

6) GET YOUR PERSONAL DEBT UNDER CONTROL 

 

Well, I am not your father who tells you what you are supposed to do, not at all. But why don’t you have a look at my post where I discussed it: https://www.uptrennd.com/post-detail/yes-you-can-be-paying-your-debts-while-saving-cryptos~NjQ4MDQ=

 

You can start doing some tricks that are being discussed here.

 

7) GROW YOUR OWN FOOD

 

Maybe, you will tell me its’ impossible. For me, it would be complicated ATM but food will become much more expensive.  And it’s already getting more expensive every day, especially the real food – organic food. I don’t like when people call it organic, because it’s a food which has been grown like in the times of our grandparents.  But what I can observe today at the segment of organic food at least in my country – it is increasing between 10-20% per year, depending on item of course and it’s already becoming a luxury for a lot of people.   It’s funny people are willing to buy an expensive Iphone 11 but not to buy a good quality food.  I don’t eat everything organic – but I procure to have organic food or free of GMO – like this ones – apple, coffee, wheat, beans, rice, corn and oils. 

 

My granparents used to have garden, or orchards and their domestic animals – pigs, goose, chickens, etc. And during the times of Depression and WW2 and even in communism they were consuming and trading their agricultural or farming production for other items. 

 

8) IF YOU BELIEVE IN YOUR BUSINESS IDEAS,  DO YOUR BUSINESS !

 

What is the worst risk? Going into bankruptcy and being dumped by your couple. But if he/she  loves you, he/she would support you. We want to live on autopilot mode – risk free steady income; what you have seen in the aforementioned points – it’s really impossible.

 

 So if you feel like doing something, go for it. Take your risks! The worst thing that I have seen is to do a job that people hate because they are scared to get out of comfort zone and some become really bitter, so let’s call it and justify however you want. I always admired people who were doing what they wanted, that wasn’t my case before. Well but I am on the way, and I found my new passion – crypto. I dedicate my time to it, and I get paid for it; isn’t it wonderful?

 

9) HELP YOUR COMMUNITY WHERE YOU LIVE IN.

 

I haven’t mentioned this tip nowhere. But if you want to earn a lot of money, you should also give back to the Universe – it sounds sophisticated – but support some shelter for people of lower income, street animals, what cause you prefer. 10% of your income for this causes, why not? I made my decision that I will donate some of my cryptos to sterilization of street cats in Monterrey. When you give, you will be given, it’s a natural balance of universal energy. Lot of religions or belief finally goes for it

 

10) LEARN, INVESTIGATE, RESEARCH AND KEEP YOURSELF UPDATED.

 

I remember when there was the most horrible financial reform you may have ever heard of like the one that was held in communist Czechoslovakia in 1950´s, when communist government converted rich people into poor overnight, when they devaluated the national currency Czechoslovak Crown – 100 crowns became 2 over night. 1 million became 20,000 CZK. 96% devaluation. My grandfather told my father, they can do really shitty things to your wealth but they cannot devaluate what you have in your brain, unless you decide to remain mediocre.

 

So take advantage of Uptrennd's unlimited resources and learn, invest in yourself!

 

So as you saw, I tried to analyze the historical event of 1929 in nutshell. I discussed the possible triggers that can cause the new depression/recession.  For me the probability of depression is around 60% in the next 3 years, but remember the word crisis stands for danger and opportunity in Chinese and there are certainly a lot of ways how to get ready for those times. So heads up and chase your dreams!

 

Sources:

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/blackthursday.asp

https://www.thebalance.com/us-gdp-by-year-3305543

https://www.thebalance.com/unemployment-rate-by-year-3305506

https://www.economist.com/content/global_debt_clock (image)

https://www.ccn.com/u-s-manufacturing-data-shows-recession-almost-here/

https://www.ccn.com/warning-signs-us-housing-market-crash/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YuePAOTL9mY 

https://www.usdebtclock.org/world-debt-clock.html

https://www.uptrennd.com/post-detail/second-world-depression-the-return-of-the-year-1929~MTA2Mjc2


cryptovato1
cryptovato1

Into crypto and cats.


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